In a surprising move, Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Yusuf announced on January 5, 2025, that the head of the Sudanese army, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, had agreed to the Turkish mediation initiative between Sudan and the United Arab Emirates. According to leaked details, the initiative includes a one-year ceasefire and a settlement under which the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) would withdraw from Khartoum and Gezira states in exchange for self-rule in Darfur.
However, the most striking aspect of this development is not just the proposed settlement itself but rather the parallel moves the army has begun preparing for—specifically, Burhan’s plan to launch a massive arrest campaign against former regime elements. This move appears to be a direct response to the provisions of the Turkish initiative, signaling a strategic recalibration within Sudan’s power structures.
The Army’s Double Game
Burhan’s relationship with the remnants of Omar al-Bashir’s Islamist regime has long been a contentious issue in Sudanese politics. On one hand, the army has relied on their political and economic influence over the years. On the other, Burhan has often found himself compelled to sideline them whenever regional and international pressures demand it. Now, the Turkish mediation seems to have given him the perfect opportunity to purge some figures who have become a political liability, particularly as external pressures mount for genuine concessions.
The timing of this anticipated crackdown suggests that the army is pursuing three key objectives:
- Demonstrating Seriousness in Negotiations – By taking action against hardline figures within his ranks, Burhan aims to present himself as a leader committed to implementing reforms that will stabilize Sudan.
- Securing Political and Diplomatic Gains – A purge of former regime figures could help convince the international community that Burhan is undertaking genuine reforms, making it easier to secure political and economic support.
- Consolidating Internal Control – Any political settlement will inevitably require a realignment of power. Weakening the influence of Islamist factions within the military and security apparatus could give Burhan a stronger grip on his authority.
Self-Rule in Darfur: A Tactical Move or a Real Concession?
Another controversial aspect of the Turkish initiative is the army’s apparent willingness to grant Darfur self-rule in exchange for the RSF’s withdrawal from Khartoum and Gezira. While this may seem like a pragmatic solution, it fundamentally alters Sudan’s power dynamics. Granting autonomy to Darfur implicitly acknowledges an independent political and military entity for the RSF, weakening the army’s centralized control over the region and raising questions about the long-term unity of Sudan as a single state.
Burhan’s approval of the Turkish mediation initiative is not merely an attempt to embrace political solutions—it is part of a broader maneuver to reshape Sudan’s power structure. While the concessions on the surface seem aimed at ending the war, the army’s parallel plans—particularly targeting former regime elements—reveal an internal power struggle where every faction is racing to secure its position before a new political reality is imposed.